JEB! has to drive only two more clowns out of the show to prevail as the Cirque du GOP's 2016 seasonal ringmaster. Neither are named Trump or Cruz

The GOP Establishment will destroy their party to prevent Donald Trump from being the nominee. That means finding a way to stop him at the Cleveland convention this summer even if Trump goes into it with the most delegates. Trump will never be allowed the nomination under any scenario.

The party establishment also does not want Ted Cruz to be the nominee either, but they probably would not burn the party Big Tent down at the convention with everyone inside to stop him. They would instead very reluctantly go down in flames with him this fall at the Main Event if he won the nomination outright in the primaries, but his chances of doing that are significantly, at least at this point, less than Donald Trump's chances.

So if Trump and Cruz stay in, both keep getting at least 25-35 percent of the vote on average, then what happens if Trump winds up with the most delegates, but not enough to get the nomination on the first ballot?  Would it go to Cruz if he were second?  Would it go to a neoconservative "establishment" candidate who was third, or maybe second, in the delegate count by June?

JEB! aims to be that joyful "tortoise."  The last "real" Republican, meaning neocon Republican, left crawling into Cleveland between Trump and Cruz.  Or behind them.

No, JEB! may not win a single primary.  But if somewhere between Florida and Ohio Kasich and Rubio drop out, JEB! will be the last man standing.  Even if Ben Carson stays in getting 5-10 percent of the vote.

That's the plan.  Use W. and a mountain of money and dirty tricks to hit Rubio in South Carolina, and hope Rubio underperforms again in tomorrow's Greenville clown cage match exhibition. He won't have Fatuous & Furious there to help tag team him though.

Then Hope JEB! can finish third, and ahead of Rubio in South Carolina. Hope to repeat and rise in Florida on March 15. Then hope Kasich falls flat in Michigan on March 8, and in Ohio on March 15, not winning either.

If JEB! beats Rubio in Florida, Team JEB! hopes he will drop out.  No guarantees, but certainly a hope. If JEB! does finish ahead of Rubio in Florida, the pressure will be very great on Rubio to drop out. Rubio's money well will dry up, and JEB!'s money faucet will start gushing again.

If Kasich doesn't come in first in Ohio on March 15, he will drop out.  No doubt.  He is not a neocon, and unlike Rubio, cannot go beyond Ohio without winning.  He has no war profiteering sugar daddy to keep him going.

So if after Ohio, both Rubio and Kasich are gone, JEB!, even without a first place finish anywhere, becomes the Republican nominee by default unless Cruz can manage to win the nomination outright in the primaries. And that is not likely.

Neither is it likely JEB! will beat Rubio in South Carolina or Florida.  But wasn't likely he would beat him in New Hampshire.  Stay tuned.  The Cirque du GOP tour this season is world class entertainment.