That’s according to members of The POLITICO Caucus — a collection of strategists, activists and operatives in the four early nominating states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Three-in-five GOP insiders across the four states — and two-thirds of Republicans in New Hampshire — said that despite Marco Rubio’s apparent rise in Iowa, Trump can’t be toppled next Tuesday.
A number of factors make a Rubio surge to first place unlikely, insiders said: Trump’s overwhelming lead in the polls, which is far larger than his advantage in Iowa; the number of other candidates focusing on New Hampshire, including John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie; and Ted Cruz’s core conservative support, which currently has the Texas senator in second place.
“Trump will be defeated in this process, but I don't think he will collapse in a week,” said a New Hampshire Republican, who, like all respondents, responded anonymously.
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