How JEB! Bush Could (Not Really) Derail Marco Rubio

It's over Poppy, I'm sorry I let you down. That little bastard Marco will pay.

(VF News) -  For months they told us we had no chance,” Marco Rubio began his quasi-victory speech Monday night, celebrating an unexpectedly strong third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses that placed him within a single percentage point of Donald Trump. Now, with the wind at his back, Rubio is pivoting toward presenting himself as the establishment champion of the Republican primary—the one candidate capable of uniting a fractious party and beating both Trump and Ted Cruz.

G.O.P. efforts to rally around Rubio began almost immediately Tuesday with a crucial endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, giving the Florida senator a more secure foothold in the upcoming Palmetto State primary. Meanwhile, a handful of Republican insiders told Politico that Rubio could attract a “wave of endorsements” from influential conservatives if he goes on to outperform in New Hampshire and beyond, critically undercutting establishment rivals John Kasich, Chris Christie, and his former mentor, Jeb Bush. There are hints, too, that his campaign’s new strategy will involve convincing those candidates to drop out rather than prolong a bruising, expensive fight that has already allowed Cruz and Trump to run roughshod over the primary process. “Any candidate other than the top three finishers in Iowa are dreaming right now and shouldn’t stay in,” a top Rubio campaign manager was quoted as saying.

One of the biggest wild cards for Rubio, ironically, remains the fatally staid Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor and his super-PACs have spent tens of millions of dollars on anti-Rubio ads, a largely ineffective strategy that has nonetheless been a boon for Cruz and Trump. Despite his collapsing poll numbers and a sixth-place finish in Iowa, Bush still has a massive war chest and a larger super-PAC, Right to Rise, which is expected to continue spending its money even as donors repeatedly signal that they would rather their own doomed candidate quit than bloody Rubio further. But if Bush himself is considering an early exit, his campaign is showing no signs: an internal memo leaked to Politico indicated that Bush plans to focus on South Carolina and Nevada, where he has a stronger ground operation and an advantage among Hispanic voters, and hopefully survive to face Rubio in their home state of Florida.

This is a scenario that the Rubio campaign wants to avoid, making the next two weeks crucial. Now that they need to plan for a three-way slugfest, no one wants the Marco-mentum to be dragged down by a candidacy in its death throes. Read more.