Trump, though, can get a solid 25 or so percent as a loser in every primary/caucus until he decides the time is right to claim he is being treated unfairly and drop out, and start planning an independent run once Rubio locks it up after March 1.
He still might play spoiler if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, because he would stand to gain so much in government favors for his real estate business from her if she, damaged by emailgate but surviving to be the nominee, won on his account. He might even get a Cuban casino concession. A Havana Trump Palace.
If you doubt a "Manchurian Candidate" theory, remember that Bill Clinton won both of his elections with a third man (Perot) in the race, getting 19 percent the first time against sitting President George HW Bush, and around 9 percent the second against a weaker Republican. The Clintons lucked out with Perot, but they learned a good lesson. Don't think for one minute that the Clintons won't have one by design in it this time. The GOP is ripe to be split open.
Trump is a brilliant showman, and if you stop and think logically you understand that filling up a hall with thousands of cheering people who came to see a free stand up act by a master showman is not the same thing as getting someone to vote for you for president.
People will willingly vote for con artists, liars, and frauds, but not usually obvious clowns. Trump is a world class clown act, but he isn't exactly a good political con man. His act is too transparently fake. But Trump, even as a postmodern political clown act, could still manage at least 10 percent of the vote in a general election from those cynical provocateurs willing to vote for him as an absurdist fashion statement.
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