Sunday, December 16, 2018

Here is a (probably totally fictional, but highty entertaining) scenario for 2020

Will Trump be impeached?  Can Trump survive Mueller? Will Trump be the GOP nominee in 2020? Here is a scenario worthy of reality TV.

The real interplay between the Republican political class and Trump has always been one of fear and loathing. Always.  They fear their own voters that Trump has marshaled against them (and their Crown Prince John Ellis Bush with devastating success in 2016). No GOP apparatchik, not Mitch "The Turtle" McConnell, not Paul "Feel The Burn" Ryan, or "Bawb" Corker wished to be the next JEB! Bush, humiliated and marginalized in their own party, the party they created and owned, and the party Trump stole from them.

McConnell dealt with Trump in a way you would expect of a creature like him.  He stayed out of his way, kept his reptilian mouth mostly shut while he stroked Trump to pass his tax cuts and other elite friendly policies.  McConnell, like all Republicans, likes Trump's corrupt privatizing, deregulatory policies, and McConnell has now transformed himself from one reptile into another, now a viper, and is waiting for the right moment to strike the interloper he privately despises.

Ryan and Coker chose the "out" route, getting out of the way entirely until the political class reasserts control of their political country club and kicks Trump out. Ryan can always run for something again, president probably in a few years after pretending to leave politics so he can "spend more time with my family," etc.  Coker's elective political career is likely finished in Trump Country Tennessee, which will alway hate him going forward, but Coker probably has designs on at minimum a very lucrative lobbying career, or perhaps Secretary of State if the Republicans can ever manage to elect another actual Republican president again.

Lindsey Graham chose yet another route.  Becoming a massive "suck up" to Trump.  Perhaps that comes naturally for Lindsey, but the various conspiracy theories floating around the 'net about Russian or Mossad "kompromat" fed to Trump about Lindsey's well guarded romantic life seem farfetched. More likely Lindsey thought it best to play Gollum to Trump in order to get the "ring" of power as the new head of the Senate Judiciary Committee, but like the mythical Gollum, he will turn flamboyantly against him again when Mueller makes his case, and will join the Viper Club to hold that ring.

How will it play out? How about this way.

The GOP is quietly looking for a way not to have to nominate Trump again in 2020.  One way perhaps to avoid that fiasco is to allow Viper Club Bush Republican Mueller to work out a "grand bargain" with Trump quietly when he has finished assembling the "goods" on him.  Show Rudy a draft of the indictments coming against Roger Stone, Junior and Jared, and the draft report on conspiracy with Russians, and offer Trump a deal: Don't run in 2020, and also don't say anything in public, including social media, against the process or the nominee.  Keep out of it, and the feds will leave you and your family alone, and we can also bring New York state into this and they won't prosecute you and your family either.  If you will just spare the country any more of yourself.

As far as Roger Stone and others are concerned, to quote fearless FBI agent Harvey Keitel from National Treasure, "somebody's got to go to jail." If you don't believe JEB! and the entire Bush family would love to see Roger Stone in prison, then you need to read THIS BOOK to find out why they do.

If such a deal is offered Trump, and he accepts it, end of story.  Pence runs, maybe JEB! runs too. Either might be the nominee, and either steal the general election, or lose it because Trump's people don't show up sensing he was "forced out."

There are "middle ground" options where Trump might agree to such a deal, then break it by attacking Pence, etc.

Then there is the option where either the deal is not offered, or Trump refuses it if it is, knowing he can't stay out of the way probably, or he simply doesn't trust Mueller. or his ability to guarantee such a grand bargain.

It's in the "no deal" or "no acceptance" options that things really get exciting and entertaining.

Let's say Trump goes ahead and runs.  Mueller indicts Junior and Jared at a minimum for process crimes, and potentially as part of a conspiracy with Russians or obstruction of justice.  Mueller's indictments and report are brutal on Trump and name him an un-indicted co-conspirator on obstruction and/or conspiracy counts.

The House eventually impeaches Trump, and Pence decides to run against him in the primaries, or more likely JEB! enters the primary race as the anti-Trump, and Pence joins the Viper Club and waits for a convention draft.

With JEB! running in the primaries and getting 35 percent of the vote, and Pence coiled and ready to strike later, Trump decides he will run as an independent in the general election if Republicans dump him in the convention, either for JEB! or Pence. He makes those intentions clear.

This is the scenario where a Senate conviction by Republicans becomes a certainty.  The moment the Viper Club strikes.

Convicting Trump and removing him from office sometime in early 2020 would save the GOP from having Trump "trump" them by running third as a sitting president if they don't re-nominate him after a devastating encounter with Mueller.  If Trump is removed from office, he can be indicted and arrested, and won't be able to run in 2020 as anything.  The Republicans might well lose the election by doing that, but they will have their country club back under their control.  They can change the nominating and primary rules to make sure someone like Trump never steals their party again, and hope that in 4 or 8 years they can sell another "compassionate" Bush or some other "aw shucks" and "Jesus is my favorite philsopher" plutocrat enabler over on the rubes in the country with prostituted religion, a return to "coded" racism, or whatever.

Never underestimate the intelligence or the knowledge of the American voter.  You can bet Mitch, Mike, JEB!, Paul and others in the Viper Club won't ever again.

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