A coming clash of dynasties? (and not the one you think)

The "big tent" circus of the GOP may feature its own dynastic confrontation in the center ring during the 2016 tour, if recent blogo-buzz is any indication.  Back in December 2011, Willard Romney met with King George I Herbert Walker, and the Dowager Queen Babs at the Winter Palace in Houston, and secured their blessing to mount his run in 2012.  The conversation undoubtedly at some point included a polite afterthought suggestion from King George I that if Romney failed to win in 2012, the Crown Prince would deserve an option to exercise "first right" of refusal in 2016.  Willard could not have gotten the ridiculous photo op with the Royal Couple unless he tacitly agreed to such a suggestion. Will Willard, scion of his own pretentious political legacy, now tear up any "gentlemen's agreement" with the Royal Family, and dare challenge the Crown Prince in what might be his best (and certainly his last) chance for glory, should JEB! opt in within the next couple of months?

Recent polls showing him a clear front runner, and embarrassingly ahead of JEB! among Republicans, might tempt him to do it, and risk near certain immolation at the hands of Rove & Co. And some polls suggest if he could defeat the Bush character assassination machine that would be unleashed against him, he might have then made it over the hardest hurdle he would have to jump in order to finally install a Romney on the POTUS throne.  His celestial father George is probably sending his boy a message straight from the Kolob solar system, telling him to risk everything, and go for it.  SETI should be monitoring.

JEB!'s solution to Common Core: bash teacher's unions!

The Bushes have always taken the deflection route in politics. Wimp factor a problem? Show your opponent riding in a tank, and not enjoying it, and then imply he deliberately unleashes dusky rapists on the public. Now comes the latest iteration of a tired old Bush playbook staple. Everyone knows the Crown Prince has a "Common Core" problem with the far right, and he needs gullible far right votes in order to buy the White House for himself and the crony class. Solution? Forget Common Core teabaggers, JEB! will break those godless unions for you!

As pitiful as it might seem to anyone else, this appears to be the route JEB! will take to try and deflect disdain for his educational cronyism.  Instead of god-hating teachers unions sucking down your tax dollars, let god-loving JEB! and his brother Neil, and all his business buddies do it instead. 

While Common Core standards may be a good thing in the right hands, JEB!'s motive with Common Core is profit at parents and children's expense. He does need to break unions, because they are the only organized force standing in his way to an educational kleptocracy. He's already personally invested in privatization of schools, so he stands to profit greatly, as do his friends and business associates. Undercut the system, destabilize it, then give it to private companies and consultants to make millions---and unleash cartel corporatist and cronyism forces on the public school system nationally. JEB!'s version of Common Core will enrich brother Neil's company Ignite! Learning, and other for-profit contractors that support JEB! and his family politically. 

Hillary still destroys JEB! in polls; Ickes drops a bomb

After the so-called GOP midterm wave, the latest New Hampshire poll shows Hillary defeating the Crown Prince by landslide proportions, 47 to 39 percent.  JEB! to date has yet to poll higher than the low 40s in any swing state or national poll.  Rand Paul (49 to 41) polls marginally better that JEB! in the Granite State, and Hillary is tied with Willard Romney (46 to 45) who calls the Lake Region one of his several homes.

It should be no surprise that Harold Ickes recently dumped a press release saying that the Hillary camp was in a panic about the possibility of losing to a JEB!-Rob Portman ticket.  They are in a panic alright, a panic to try and dupe the GOP fat cats into buying the nomination for JEB!, and JEB! into picking Portman, an uninspiring empty-suited neocon corporatist who is very publicly in favor of gay marriage, as his running mate.  The Republican base, already depressed over JEB!'s Common Core and open borders past, would likely go ballistic over Portman.  It would be the surest likely route to a third option for the angry right, and might be the one thing to lure Huckabee into being that option.

In the words of the last Bush Decider in Chief, Bring 'em on!

"Declaration of War" against JEB! 2016 comes today

The Democratic "declaration of war" against the Crown Prince and his '16 "Bonnie Prince Jebbie" Restoration effort begins tonight, then continues tomorrow in the lair of Sheldon Adelson, when Obama travels to Vegas and throws down his Hispanic gauntlet at the feet of the Royal Family and their Party of Bush.  What better place to do it, where lots of "undocumented" workers bus the tables and clean the toilets of the gambling class and neocon plutocrats like Adelson, who will surely be one the principal financial backers of the Crown Prince.

Why me?  Why now?  I need a cigarette...and a drink!

Obama is certainly a master of political theater and gamesmanship, if not exactly governing policy, but the timing of this action is risky. He might be better served to challenge the new Congress to act, give them a few months, and do this next Spring.   The public would likely see that timetable as more reasonable.  The gamble with waiting a bit longer is that Congress might actually pass a comprehensive bill, and deflate the whole political strategy. This seems unlikely for two reasons. The nativist base would insure any bill would have to be passed by violating the "Hastert rule" in the House, and the GOP establishment's strategy on immigration seems to be to hold off (so as not to enrage the nativists) until JEB! can take credit for "solving" the problem with a limited guest worker scheme to benefit business interests in 2017, after the Bushes retake power, and the base no longer matters.

Obama's strategy, whether now or in a few months, is obvious:

Split the Republican Party in half. This will happen regardless of timing.

1. Embolden the nativists to take to "hate radio" and the media, and control the public face of the Republican Party's reaction, including demands for both a government shutdown and impeachment. This will happen regardless of timing, yet doing it now may actually provoke a government shutdown next month.

2. Make it impossible for the Bourbon Toad and the Ohio Bouncer to control their respective caucuses. Debatable.  Mr. Toad is on record stating, categorically, there will be no government shutdown, while the Brown (as in spray tanned) Bouncer has been less categorical in his rhetoric. Even a "partial" shutdown used to mute the worst excesses of the base would likely seriously damage McConnell's credibility.

Shut up, teabagger's, and fall in behind your RINO Prince!

3. Panic the GOP Establishment into doing whatever it takes to force the nomination of JEB! as a counterweight to the nativists, meaning JEB! will have to campaign openly in favor of "open borders" via a "comprehensive" Congressional solution, and against his party's base, in order to mitigate any intergeneration damage with Hispanic voters.  Very likely.

4. Enrage the GOP base into backing a third option when JEB! buys the nomination.  That is the obvious goal of all this gamesmanship, and a slight long shot. Probably the odds of drawing to an inside straight, or inside flush, but better than an inside straight flush.

The real risk for Obama is that the public will view the action as too premature.  Part of the Republican reaction, both establishment and base, will be to try and define Obama as an "imperial" tyrant.  They could have some success with this, at least initially, but probably not enough to prevent most of the negative fallout on the GOP the strategy is designed to provoke during the 2016 campaign.

Obama should wait until Spring.  Congress won't pass anything anyway.  JEB! is definitely going to run, and there is no need to panic the GOP donors into begging him to doing something he and his family are hell bound to do anyway.  Doing it after giving the new Congress a direct challenge to act, and doing so when they fail to act will only drive Hispanic voters further away from the Republican Party.

But Obama's going to drop his Schlieffen Plan now, and start the war.  We should know within a few weeks whether Hillary will spend the next two years getting a makeover in Paris, or stuck in the muddy trenches.

Business Insider: Jeb Bush Is Reportedly Making 'Secret Visits' To Wall Street To Prepare For A 2016 Campaign

Obama readying a "decapitation strike" against JEB! 2016

A. B. Stoddard lobbed a fire bell into the pundit's night with her "All eyes on Jeb Bush" in The Hill, and outlined the greatest problem a JEB! nomination (besides his family's toxic presidential legacy) would pose for the Party of Bush  in 2016:

"...a Bush candidacy would guarantee immigration comes back to the fore in the presidential primary, just as it did in 2012, which is exactly what Republicans don’t want."

If she knows this, then Obama certainly does too, and he is getting ready to slam a sledge hammer into that wedge, and split the dry log of the GOP in two.

Issuing an executive order that will give legal status to millions of Bush era illegal immigrants (he will shrewdly limit it to those who have been in the USA, without criminal trouble, for several years) will both enrage the Republican Party's nativist base, and panic the GOP establishment.

The base will demand Obama's impeachment, and sorely test the ability of Boehner and McConnell to control the tea party constituency in Congress.  Congress will be effectively paralyzed and cannot undue Obama's actions with a legislative alternative that gives the GOP a public relations win. The Republican establishment, as a result, will be ever more determined to nominate an "immigration friendly" candidate to offset congressional inaction,  and the negative image of the base's demand for impeachment, and their high profile media-saturated tirade against "amnesty" for "illegals" that Obama will deliberately unleash.

Boehner and McConnell already hate Obama (and no doubt that hatred is reciprocated), and they will hate him ever more for making their lives a living hell next year.

Obama's actions will put the GOP in an essentially checkmated position for 2016.  Either the establishment forces the nomination of JEB! and alienates their enraged base, or the base gets so riled up they prevent JEB!'s nomination and nominate someone like Ted Cruz.  Either way, a certain massive loss in two years, when turnout will be closer to 50 percent, instead of 36 percent (the lowest mid-term turnout since the 1940s).























JEB! cannot easily campaign both against Obama's order, and in favor of his default position of open borders and a peonage guest worker card.  The Democrats will claim the nativist base is anti-Hispanic and will forever prevent the GOP Congress from passing a legislative solution to the problem, and then claim the GOP establishment does not favor a solution where these immigrants, illegal but yet vigorously lured here by American business interests during both Bush (and yes Clinton) presidencies, have a real chance at full assimilation and citizenship: the GOP elites just want to make them "guest workers."

The strategy is a potentially brilliant political one, even if it is not the correct policy solution.  It will further drive Hispanic voters away from the Republican Party generally, and it will make it nearly impossible for JEB! to make an successful appeal to Hispanics as the establishment nominee.

Hillary will then rout JEB! in 2016 due to two factors:

1. An overall higher voter turnout with proportionally fewer old white people, which puts the increasingly reactionary and divided GOP (able to win in low turnout elections) at an inherent disadvantage.

2. A classic wedge strategy that "suppresses" a crucial amount of the GOP core base any Republican needs to maximize for victory by alienating the nativists from the establishment nominee, whom many will dislike almost as much as Hillary.  If just ten percent of the GOP base either stays home or votes for an opportunistic independent nativist candidate (rather likely in a Hillary-Jeb matchup), it's over. In the alternative scenario, the base nominates a nativist which alienates the political center.

The one real threat to Hillary is the same threat posed to Gore in 2000.  A general election attack from her left flank. It won't come from Nadar this time, but the "iceberg spotters" had better keep a keen eye, and an open wallet, trained on Bernie Sanders.  The Hildabeast is no earth toned Al, and she and her machine will figure out a way to buy Bernie off early.

Wall Street Journal: White House Considers Timing of Executive Action on Immigration

Chicago Tribune: Jeb Bush is the wrong Republican for 2016

It's Official: Mark Levin says JEB! is running

From God's mouth to the Great One's ear, Mark Levin said recently on his radio show that he’s heard on the Q.T. that the Crown Prince is definitely running for president. Hear him say it here.  So will Mark tell his flock after Jeb buys the nomination that it is now time to "fall in line" like good patriotic sheep, and vote for Jeb as the last best hope for America? Bet that fix is already in.

The 2016 election (and who will win it) is in JEB!'s hands now

The Democrats better hope against hope that JEB! runs in 2016.  Since the donor class will certainly prevent someone like Ted Cruz from being the nominee, and thus just handing the election to Hillary, the next best near-sure-fire option for a Democratic presidential victory in 2016 is for the donor class to force the nomination of the Crown Prince.  JEB! has said repeatedly he will announce (or not) by the end of the year.  You can't take any Bush at their word, but the donors will demand an answer by spring, so the nation, and Hillary, should know their fate within about six months.  Hillary will not formally announce her intentions before JEB! does (she is not stupid enough to do that), and ironically she would be LESS likely to run (and more beatable) if JEB! bows out.

This week's Republican midterm victory doesn't really clear up the picture regarding JEB!  On one hand, the victory could embolden neocons, donors, and the Bush family to believe they can put another one over on the country, by hook or crook, and therefore make it more likely Bush will run, however, now that Prince George P. is safely ensconced in his new Texas sinecure and exercising control over oil and gas leases, and ready to hand out Common Core contracts to a feeding frenzy of curriculum profiteers, Bush family cronies, and hucksters, the 2024 Bush "Hispanic Obama" Restoration route looks rather promising.

Ron Paul had the best comment by anyone (politician, pundit, or media whore) about this election: The GOP gains in the Senate and House will embolden the neocons and hawks (in both parties) and make another war in the middle east more likely.

Ron Paul Warns: GOP Senate Control Means Expanded Wars

A GOP wave is coming, then a wipe out.

The party of unbridled reaction is going to win big this Tuesday. Despite the fact there is no actual ebola epidemic in the US, or the likelihood of one. Despite falling leaves and falling gas prices, and despite the fact that the current chaos in Iraq was proximately caused by King George II W Bush and his incompetently executed war there.

Is Obama to blame for the coming Democratic loss? He coddled the bankers, continued Bush's bailout scheme, practices crony capitalism almost as well as a Bush, and for political, or whatever, reasons, he belatedly embraced a fatally flawed strategy to try and reverse Dubya's Middle Eastern disaster.  In 2008 Wall Street bankrolled him (then betrayed him for one of their own predators in 2012), and the Bushes probably even secretly voted for him over McCain. So yeah, he is partly to blame.

Deluded Bush Republican media chatterers like Rove will spin the party's coming midterm triumph as some sort of widespread popular re-embrace of elitist, unearned income-friendly tax policies, and their neoconservative vision for more disastrous preemptive war in the Middle East. Almost no one else will see it that way, including a sizable chunk of the GOP rank and file libertarian, and tea party base. Democrats will say it's the obvious result of a low turnout, old white racist property-owning centered electorate, and that most of the Senate seats lost were in the Confederacy.  That is partly true, especially the latter part.  But the GOP is going to win in a few other places too, and the Democrats are probably not going to do that well with the few younger voters who do bother to show up.

No, the GOP is going to almost run the table tomorrow, and they will pat themselves, and their dolt of a leader, Reince Priebus, on the back for it, and then promptly let the hubris of that unearned victory delude them into making critical mistakes that ensure a rather quick reversal of their political fortune.

First, this is how JEBWATCH predicts tomorrow's political surf-side show:

Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota are already guaranteed GOP pickups, so on to:

Alaska:  This is Palin Country, and No Country For Young or Old Democrats.  Begich's 2008 election was a fluke, made possible only because even Alaska voters couldn't ignore the over the top corruption of political dinosaur Ted Stevens after he was criminally indicted on multiple counts of ethics violations and pay to play gifting. You can betcha Begich goes down this time, big time, to Palin's former Attorney General.

New Hampshire:  Thank God (or To Whom It May Concern) for New Hampshire.  At least Democrats should.  The independent minded voters of the Granite State won't buy the desperate carpetbagging of relocated former male model and portfolio churner Scott Brown.  There aren't enough retired Taxachusetts expats living lakeside on Winnipesaukee or Squam to make that happen.

Iowa:  If a Democratic woman running for the US Senate ran an ad, and talked about castrating hogs in it, she would be immediately accused by Godly Republicans of really wanting to castrate and tranny out the farm boys tending the hogs, and then turn their sisters into lesbians.  But when a Republican women does it, well, it's just cute.  What Ernst really wants to do is castrate a few Democratic girly men, and that should be an easy and quick slice of work. Ernst in a landslide, not a squealer.

Wisconsin:  Scott Walker's hopes to be the VP for the Crown Prince remain alive (Bush-Walker, now that has a sick ring to it) as he dispatches Mary Burke's birkenstock candidacy.  And crushes a few more commie, atheist-run labor unions along the way.

Colorado: This is one that could go either way, but a lot of Udall's voters are probably enjoying their newfound herbal liberties, and won't make it to the polls.  Will enough Hispanics? Gardner in a close vote if we have to call it.

Arkansas:  Heading down to God's (Own Party's) Country for the first whistle stop.  Even Bill Clinton, campaigning 24/7 in every county in the state, couldn't save his old buddy Mark Pryor. Angry ebola and Obama-panicked Arkansans are gonna be running to the polls in high Cotton.

Louisiana:  One of America's genuine banana republics.  Landrieu's luck runs out, but not before a runoff.  Palin gets rebuffed too, as Bush establishment toadie Cassidy wallops Maness to buy the seat from the Democrat.

North Carolina. This may be the closest loss for Democrats, but a loss it will be.  No Moral Monday is gonna stop the Immoral Tuesday for Kay Hagan.  Expect black folks and spoiled white college students to have to drive across three counties and up a dozen four wheel drive trails to get to their 2016 polling places after Senator Tillis gets through with them.

Georgia: You would think Michelle Nunn might have a shot. Daughter of Sam Nunn, Blue Dog legend.  She has the televised support of crazy old turncoat, Iraq War supporter and W. keynoter Zig Zag Zell Miller.  But then she had to go and make a commercial highlighting her work for King George I HW Bush, and how well pleased he was with it.  Proud outsourcer and vulture crony capitalist David Perdue (who, by the way, has the obvious actual endorsement of King George I HW Bush, the royal benefactor of all outsourcers), the cousin of former Governor Sonny Perdue (but not the chicken Perdues), will go to the Senate and help make sure Georgia keeps the nation's highest unemployment rate.  And Nathan Deal (Real, as in Crook) gets another four years to remain one of the USA's most corrupt, and incompetent, governors. Don't even think about trying to drive I-75 or I-285 around Atlanta if it gets an inch or two of snow again this winter.

Kentucky:  An honorary Confederate state, and one where Queen Mitch, America's most famous bag lady for lobbyists, crony capitalists and plutocrats buys yet another nasty victory, and teaches that perky Clinton girl who didn't vote for Obama not to mess with a real bluegrass Biatch.

Florida: Another one of America's genuine banana republics.  You have a guy, the current Republican, who of course currently owns the governor's mansion, and who was once the head of a company that holds the record for the largest corporate fraud conviction in US history going up against Jeb Bush's handpicked successor, a former Republican and current tanning bed connoisseur. Expect the corporate fraudster, and genuine Republican to beat out the former Republican and fraudulent Democrat.  Floridians are the certain losers, but they deserve to be.

Jesuchristo es mi filosofo favorito

Texas:  A genuine American banana republic that was once an actual one.  There are no genuinely contested races in this one party state, but there is one sad, uncontested one.  The next generation of Bush kleptocrats and legacy wastrels, Prince George P. will buy (or more accurately will have bought for him) the Texas Land Commissionership. With that little purchase the Somoza, er Bush family will then control all oil and gas lease patronage on state lands, and can dole out the state education budget to whichever cronies they choose in pay to play privatization scams.

The Republican Party should wind up with at least eight (nine if you throw in the questionable hippie-cowboy divide in Colorado) Senate pickups, four of which are in the Confederacy (Arkansas, Lousiana, North Carolina), or honorary Confederacy (West Virginia), and four in the "Christian Identity- Posse Comitatus" heartland (Alaska, Montana, Iowa, and South Dakota), but whatever the Party of Bush gains on home turf in 2014, the Bush family's political conceit will take away elsewhere in 2016.  The rest of the country (outside of the Confederacy, and the Corn and Wheat Belts) will rightly recoil from a third Bush presidential run, and flip the Senate right back into Democratic hands (if just barely) in 2016, and put a farm boy castratrix-in-chief in the White House, but even that won't stop the family's fourth try in 2024 running George P. as a "Hispanic" neocon version of Obama.  God help us all.

Will the tea party kiss their sister, go rogue, or stay home?

If JEB! is running, then the donor class will force him down the throat (a less frank simile than the actual buggered reality) of the party's angry, reactionary base they have carefully assembled over the last generation to serve their material interests.  The same base that is getting less openly pliant about being politically raped in such ways.

The mention of JEB!'s name is often as loudly booed at right wing GOP rallies these days as Obama's, so what sort of machinations will the elites (having carefully bought both Hillary and JEB!) have to employ to get these same folks out and enthusiastically voting for JEB! in two years? Some of it will involve shamelessly promoting a folk devil image of their own Hillary as a succubaiting hag luring golden-haired sorority girls into lesbianism, and a bloody castratix-in-chief slicing up white male gun owners and prom date-raping farm boys (the abuse she will have to endure in order to get the chance to break a cosmetic glass ceiling and serve the plutocracy).  The moneybags also will also have to try and sell JEB! in the suburbs as the programmed face of a new and "coming soon" multicultural, gay-friendly GOP, stop any potential third challenge to either of their perfectly acceptable options, and forestall what is looking increasingly like a long-term unraveling of the two party system in the New Guilded Age.

This will be daunting because 2016, if it devolves down to an uninspired choice between a third legacy Bush and a third Clinton term, should inspire at least one credible political entrepreneur (not a part of the political cartel) to challenge this non-choice. Jesse Ventura probably isn't the most credible, but even he, as a former governor, could likely siphon off ten percent of the vote in such a race, and someone more credible could rack up a Perot level 20 or so percent.

The real challenge for plutocracy is not being able to prevent someone they haven't bought and paid for actually making it to the White House.  That won't happen in 2016.  The real problem for them is preventing someone consistently getting 15-20 percent in opinion polls from being included in the general election debates they hope to control, and using the nationally televised opportunity to cogently articulate an authentic and non-scripted indictment of the bailout, crony-capital, and leverage finance-friendly economy the donor class is desperate to preserve, and thus sow rational and organized dissent (otherwise known as domestic terrorism) for a future election the plutocrats can't as easily control.

Thus the potential for an interesting election still exists.  The most interesting one would feature Hillary, JEB! (with pro-gay marriage, and father of a gay son, Ohio Senator Rob Portman as his VP), and Mike Huckabee (permanently burning his FOX moneymaking bridge) running third, and against both crony capitalism and the "new" GOP.  That would make for many long nights on both K and Wall Streets.

BusinessInsider: Conservatives Are Already Freaking Out About Jeb Bush's Possible Run For President

Is JEB! 2016 a big dishonest fake out, or an already done deal?

The Curly, Moe, and Larry of American politics

The recent flurry of media and blogosphere activity over Prince George P.'s JEB! 2016 boosterism, and the Crown Prince's public repudiation of it begs the obvious question. Since Bushes are not known for actually shooting straight with their rhetoric, is the JEB! 2016 buzz just one big, coordinated feint designed to prematurely promote George P. for 2024, or the logical ground work for an actual 2016 run by the current Bush Crown Prince?  There can be no doubt that the Bush family is going to try to seize the White House at some time again in the future.  Whether with JEB! in 2016, or his "Hispanic" son in 2024, that self-serving, mendacious effort will come, and that dark cloud will hang over the United States' future until the sad day arrives.  For the sake of the nation, hopefully it will come, and can be rebuffed, sooner rather than later.