Tuesday, November 17, 2015

JEB!'s (very) long shot (and only remaining) path to victory is a chapter from the Atwater / Rove playbook that must be played soon.

No, we are still on "vacation" as JEB! 2016 remains on hospice care, but one thing remains relevant about JEB!, and Karl Rove telescoped it to the world back on November 4 in his Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, The Path to a Wild GOP Convention. There appears only one long shot option at this point for the Crown Prince to obtain the nomination, a brokered convention, and even that is out of JEB!'s reach unless Rubio implodes. Time is running out for JEB! to take out Rubio in full Bush style, and if he doesn't, his campaign will end before the Florida primary, since he will never allow himself to be humiliated by a single digit showing in the state he ruthlessly governed for eight years.

He will not take on Rubio directly, of course.  If it happens, it will follow a certain pattern. Look for a stealth Bush partisan in the corporate media world, one preferably not at FOX (more likely at the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times, or a Florida newspaper) to serve up a lethal hit piece revealing devastating information that sinks Rubio's campaign.  For this to happen, there has to be something out there to sink Rubio with.  Merely running superPAC attack ads over abortion or his absentee voting record in the Senate is nowhere near enough, even if you ran them 24-7. To quote Edwin Edwards, JEB! has to put Marco, metaphorically if not literally, in bed with a dead girl, or a live boy. JEB! seemed to have regarded Rubio in the past as his protege, and perhaps he is a bit reluctant to destroy him, but at this point, destroy him he must, and if he is a Bush, he will at some point, authorize such a hit if the ammunition is there. The next 30-45 days should reveal whether or not the next Bush in line is up to his familial political legacy.

Even it that happens, it's still no lock for the Crown Prince. The "brokered" nomination has to unfold during a deadlocked primary season.  Say, for instance, Trump, Carson, and Cruz remain viable, and each get 20-25 percent of the vote.  JEB! by taking out Rubio, combined with the natural attrition of Kasich and Fat & Furious (Christie) becomes the de facto establishment candidate and manages to up his single digit game to a level roughly equivalent to the three "outsiders," around 20 percent. Rand Paul stays in and gets the 10 percent "libertarian" vote all the way through.

Then no one gets enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, and the bargaining begins, and out of the dust JEB! manages to buy the nomination.

It could happen.  It would split the party. It might cause Trump to run third. But it would give the Crown Prince his "turn" to lose to Hillary.

This may be one of the few times that the GOP establishment, with or without JEB! as their candidate, actually wants a brokered nomination, either to put JEB!, Rubio, Romney (again) or a dark horse on the ticket since it is very unclear at this point that any establishment candidate can win enough primary votes to get the nomination on the first ballot.  Rubio probably can in the end if not destroyed by JEB!, but we will see.

Miami New Times: AS GOVERNOR, JEB BUSH STOPPED AT NOTHING TO RETALIATE AGAINST HIS ENEMIES