Friday, July 31, 2015

How Donald Trump can really impact the 2016 race in a positive way.

Donald Trump, simply put, is not going to be the Republican nominee, and he is not going to be president. Trump cannot override the entire Republican party leadership and their rigged rules, nor can he overcome the limitations of his appeal with GOP primary voters. He has a ceiling.  It's a high ceiling in a crowded race, one that puts him clearly in front right now, but don't look for him ever to rise much above 30 percent support.

And The Donald cannot win the election running as a third option, though he probably could do as well, if not better, than Perot.  There is, however, one condition where he should nonetheless run rogue, and serve his country well by doing so.

At some point in the future Donald Trump should call a press conference and announce to the world that he will run as an independent only under one condition.  And that condition is if JEB! Bush buys the Republican nomination.  JEB! is hellbent on doing it, and he has the plan, the people, and the organization in place to do it.  He already has the support of the most reactionary plutocrat donors who are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into buying his influence.

When should Trump begin his electoral blackmail of the party elites?  Not now, and not next week. He should do it when JEB!, Rove and Company take off the gloves and commence their PAC-driven campaign of universal destruction against all credible opposition.  When the money bombs against Walker, Kaisch,  etc. begin.  They will have to do it, and then Donald should make his move.

The bottom line is that Donald Trump can save America from JEB! Bush.  He has already damaged his "brand," so why not go for a real payoff with meaning?

Why would he do it?  Trump had given Hillary money in the past, and prior to the 2000 election he even spoke well of JEB!  Before his brother stole that election with JEB!'s Florida voter roll purging help, and then nearly destroyed the country.

Trump should do it for these reasons:

America can survive four years of Hillary Clinton (or Joe Biden) with Republicans in control of Congress, as each put limits on the others most self serving and kleptocratic instincts.  Can American survive four (or eight bought years) of JEB! Bush thieving and warring together with John Boehner and Mitch McConnell?

A JEB! Bush presidency would result in a multi-trillion dollar unwinnable war against Iran, and more catastrophic and neocon driven, ill-conceived middle east adventurism in Iraq and beyond. If you doubt this, just listen to neocons John Bolton and Norman Podhoretz unambiguously state the foreign policy position of another Bush administration.

A JEB! Bush presidency would result in much higher oil and gas prices.  Hillary Clinton's pay to play history with the Clinton Foundation is reprehensible, but it can't begin to compare with the Bush family's long history of serving as "manchurian candidates" for Saudi and other oil-client state interests.

A JEB! Bush presidency, with a GOP Congress, would result in much higher deficits, and an almost certain sovereign debt crisis at some point.

A JEB! Bush presidency would result in a renewed orgy of klepto-plutocratic treasury raiding and subsidization of speculative financial moral hazard.

A JEB! Bush presidency would result in increasing income and wealth concentration beyond the current destabilizing levels, accelerated middle class collapse, and perpetual low GDP growth driven by ruinous tax and trade policies that promote wealth preservation through tax-subsidized asset bubbles, but not domestic growth economics.

Hillary Clinton may be a crook (well she is a crook) but comparing her political immorality with JEB! Bush's is like comparing a part-time boiler room telemarketer's with Bernie Madoff's. Donald Trump, of all people, should understand that.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

The real story behind the Quinnipiac swing state poll, and another "shocker"

The media is finally reporting on a political story that does not feature Donald Trump.

It's the series of new Quinnipiac polls in Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia that indicate The Hildabeast, battered by recent radioactive (as in uranium) and email scandals, polling in the high '30s and low '40s against three potential Republican rivals.  That's the only part of the story the media will spin.

There is another, more important part of this story that media will ignore.  Of the three Republican options (Bush, Walker, and Rubio), the Crown Prince John Ellis Bush, with already essentially universal name recognition, polls consistently at the bottom.  Here are the numbers:

QUINNIPIAC SWING STATE POLL:


Does anyone really believe that JEB! Bush will get anywhere near 50 percent in any swing state next November?  Even against Hillary Clinton?

And another poll "shocker" is the Washington Post/ABC poll that dared poll Donald Trump in a three way race with JEB! and Hilldog.  Hint, he does better than Perot, and JEB! turns in the worst performance for a Republican nominee since Taft in 1912.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Donald Trump: The "Borscht Belt" Candidate

Donald Trump is not really running for president, anymore than Pat Paulson once was.  He is running to impact it yes, but not to win it.

Donald Trump, like Herman Cain before him, is a postmodern presidential candidate.  A performance artist at work.

JEB! and other Bushes may be postmodern in that they don't believe in any objective principals other than their own sense of political entitlement, and with the help of political Svengalis like Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, they have in the past ruthlessly used racism, xenophobia, and identity politics to deceive and manipulate ill informed and gullible "grievance" voters, but Donald Trump is giving them an absurdist Dorian Gray lesson in what's objectively wrong with them, their politics, and the postmodern political party they created.

His inspiration is pure show biz, particularly a venerable type of vaudeville and burlesque act from the past. His stump speech is a farcical Catskills stand up roast routine where he transforms an angry Henny Youngman or Buddy Hackett into a dystopian version of Will Rogers, with a calculated bit of Lonesome Rhodes and Howard Beale thrown in for leavening. Only if you understand him this way can you explain such improv gems as the recent John McCain diatribe. The only thing missing there was the drum and cymbal trill at the end.

Some gullible pundits think Trump is helping JEB! by deflating his "serious" opposition.  Some think he is actually working for Hillary.  Trump is working for himself of course, but the smart money would bet his real goal is to derail JEB! 2016.  Eventually after turning a few debates into Dean Martin roast parodies, he will drop out and endorse someone he considers the "right" serious man for the job in 2016.  It won't be JEB! Soon thereafter, if his choice isn't winning, he will drop a big media bomb that he will run as an independent if the "wrong" candidate winds up buying the Republican nomination.  It doesn't require a lot of imagination to figure out who that might be.

JEB! Bush Is Meaner Than He Looks

How do you like my new set of horns, Donald?
(...John, Marco, Scott, and Krispy Kris?)  
If the other Bush campaigns are any guide, the gloves are about to come off.

(Politico) - Like father, like son—or perhaps it’s the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. Whatever cliché you prefer, one of the useful things about dynasties is that patterns emerge over time. With the Clintons, for instance, we know to pay attention to every modifying word and each verb tense they use (the meaning of “is” and such). The whole truth usually has to be dragged out of them—or discovered independently.


Similarly, an examination of the Bush family legacy in campaigning makes clear that Jeb Bush’s “Mr. Nice Guy” routine isn’t likely to last all that long. Most presidential candidates have a streak of ruthlessness in them—even the nice guys. Make that especially the nice guys. They’re mild-mannered and courteous in public, so someone else has to do the dirty work of winning for them.

Jeb Bush will prove this again. It’s an easy prediction that he’ll follow his brother and father in bushwhacking any opponent standing between him and the presidency. With the Bushes, do not take too seriously their assertions of personal sweetness. Read more.

Friday, July 3, 2015

Diluting the candidate pool for the Bush and Clinton show

(Chicago Tribune) - ...With so many candidates in the Republican field, big government bullies like Christie and Trump, big government dynastic heirs like Jeb!, conservatives like Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and the libertarian Sen. Rand Paul, here's what could happen. The one with the money and the organization benefits. That's Jeb Bush. It's no accident, because politics is no accident. ...The establishment pretends it creates jobs when it doesn't, and pretends it values individual liberty when it doesn't. But there's one thing they don't have to pretend...The Republican establishment does not want voters to see contrast between Bush and [a real anti neo-con like] Paul. They will not allow this. Since Bush's brother and the neo-cons led Americans into that ill-fated war in Iraq, the Republican Party has been in serious need of a real debate about its future, a debate between big government GOP types who back the Bush Restoration and the conservative-libertarian wing that does not. But that would threaten the establishment's control. And they won't take that chance. It's all about arithmetic...Elections are won in the primaries. The bosses dilute the opposition, throw in extra candidates, knowing the numbers. They've already done the math. It's all about control. Read more.