Monday, May 5, 2014

Highballing toward a dead end: Jeb can't beat Hillary under any scenario

The ongoing GOP plutocrat campaign to make Jeb Bush the 2016 nominee is either an act of suicidal madness, or an admission that Hillary is perfectly acceptable to them as the alternative president to their own ideal candidate, if you believe the numbers. A recent post on the Daily Beast states the obvious about Jeb:  "If he gets into the 2016 race, he'll immediately be crowned the GOP favorite." This is the one election cycle, however, where the "establishment" candidate is not an electable one.  Though it might not be obvious to the hard right base of the party, the pundit consensus has always been that both McCain and Romney were among the best hopes the GOP (at least on paper) had to win the elections of 2008 and 2012, considering the alternatives running.  That simply can't be the case with Jeb Bush, and the chattering class is well aware of it.  While Jeb may not be a worse electoral alternative to Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, if you believe the consistency of polling he is no better than the fringe at his prospects in the general election.  The Daily Beast reviews the sad prospects for the last Bush Crown Prince:

"In a recent Colorado poll, Bush did worse against Clinton than Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Chris Christie. (Paul even led Clinton by five points in this poll, suggesting that the libertarians stoners are all in for him.) In a Wisconsin survey, Clinton led Huckabee by 12 and Bush and Paul both by 11. In a national Marist poll from April 15, Clinton led Paul Ryan by eight, Christie by 11, Huckabee by 13, Paul by 14, Cruz by 15, and Bush by 16. That’s right—dead last. Behind Cruz."

Christie's enforcer manner and faux working class bravado was the best hope for right wing plutocracy.  He is no longer viable.  Paul Ryan would probably be their next best hope, but his honest social Darwinism does not inspire their wallets or their aspirations the way a wedge legacy prince of the blue blood like Jeb does.  So Jeb's coming "coronation" as the Republican nominee is either a runaway train headed for the end of the track, or the right wing element of plutocracy admitting that George Soros can protect their interests better than the tea party (of their own creation).  Rupert Murdoch has already said as much.

If the anti-plutocracy right could unite around one populist reactionary, they could defeat Bush in the primary season.  That won't happen given the way the donor class will manipulate candidate funding, but it would be very interesting if it did, and it is perfectly plausible that Rand Paul, for instance, could actually outperform Jeb (meaning lose by a smaller margin to Hillary) in the general election.

The Week: Wall Street would 'love' Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush in 2016

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