Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Would Jeb nomination be "suicidal" for the GOP?

While the Republican Party stands to make gains, perhaps even seemingly major ones, in the upcoming midterm elections, the short term bump they receive because of Obamacare may only temporarily paper over the long terms problems facing the party.

A recent article in Slate posits that a Jeb Bush presidential run in 2016 would be "hard" for the Republican Party, exposing in the worst way, its existing fault lines and interest group contradictions. Saying it would be "hard" might be an understatement in hindsight.  Bush's family heritage, coming off of two recent arguably failed Bush presidents (at least with the second) obviously would be a problem, according to the article, but the second reason is the kicker:

"The second problem for Bush is the people backing the draft movement. He isn’t being called from the counter in coffee shops or Tuesday Tips club meetings. The support is coming from what one GOP veteran referred to as “the donor class.”  This group is also variously referred to as the establishment, Country Club Republicans, and the moderate wing of the party. These Republicans are tired of being defined by the ... Tea Party wing of the party. Meanwhile, movement conservatives are sick of elites using their money to arrange things without the interference of pesky voters."

The real problem the plutocrat donor base faces if it forces Jeb upon the party's voting base in 2016 is a potential irreversible destruction of the wedge issue electoral coalition of disparate reactionary and libertarian interest groups that has served the donor class very well over the last thirty plus years.  Jeb will not run as a phony cultural reactionary like his older brother did, and his calculated appeal to "moderates, modernists, and Hispanics" will enrage the white nativist base of the GOP, and also his neoconservative support, and crony capitalist baggage will alienate the libertarians.  Would it be a perfect storm for the Republican Party, given Jeb's likely weak appeal to independents in a general election hostile to a third Bush "entitlement" presidency within the last quarter century?   The Clintons' campaign slogan may need be only:  "A Clinton Second Act, or a Third Bush Try?  You Choose."

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