Friday, May 30, 2014

If not JEB!, then who for the GOP?

Clearly Jeb Bush cannot win the presidency.  For the Republican Party to nominate him would be nothing short of committing an act of deliberate electoral suicide.  He is being promoted by the media, and some well-heeled, self-serving donors and party leaders because he is party royalty (a safe choice for the speculator class and coupon clippers, goes the assumption, even if he loses). The other alteratives to JEB! being heavily promoted by the media (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and until recently Chris Christie) are all now as equally unelectable as Bush.  Though Paul does poll better than JEB! against Hillary, he and Cruz are both unacceptable to the party establishment as a standard bearer.

So, does the GOP literally have no one who could be competitive with Hillary Clinton on a national level?  They probably do have competitive candidates, most likely a governor somewhere, but none are being promoted, or seriously discussed at this point.   Who might be a viable alternative to a Jeb Bush gotterdammerung?

The most obvious one, if he wins reelection this year, is John Kaisch.

He is a reasonably popular governor of a crucial swing state (Ohio) who isn't well known (meaning he isn't already perceived by the public as a typical reactionary nitwit), isn't an extremist, and is someone who likely would come across as reasonably intelligent and non-threatening as a presidential candidate. Kaisch would probably put Ohio at least into play if he were the nominee, and might even force Clinton to defend Michigan.

Kaisch does have some downsides.  He was associated with Wall Street speculation during W.'s administration, and, like JEB!, worked for Lehman Brothers (as managing director of the Columbus, Ohio regional office, not in New York) just prior to the investment bank's collapse.  He also had some history, as governor, of attacking public employee unions, but he took a less extreme and less confrontational position on unions than the more prominent (and less nationally electable) Scott Walker.

If Republicans can avoid another brush with the Bushes, and nominate someone like Kaisch, they may, or may not, beat Hillary, but they can probably avoid a historic, generational catastrophe.

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