Tuesday, January 6, 2015

HUCK 2016 can both guarantee JEB! the nomination, and his landslide defeat to the Hildabeast

Now that William Jennings Huckabee looks poised to run away from FOX and join the GOP's Greatest Political Show on Earth for its big tent 2016 tour, let's examine how a Huckabee run can both assure the Crown Prince the nomination, and then, if events fall into place just right, how Huckabee could be the patriot that saves the nation from a Bush Restoration attempted in the service of cronyism and royalism.

1.  Huckabee will be a big addition to the already divided "anti-Bush" alternative vote, and further split it between himself and the likes of Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Ranger Rick Perry. In fact a Huckabee candidacy will make it not just plausible, but actually probable that JEB! can pull out a plurality first place finish in the trifecta of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, and essentially lock up the nomination by March 1. Likewise, Rob Portman's little-noticed and recent decision not to enter the presidential race most likely indicates that he is positioning himself to be JEB!'s running mate, if JEB! is ultimately willing to go that route.

2. Huckabee has to know he has no chance to win the Republican nomination.  He knows he will get little to no corporate or "fat cat" money, and simply will be unable to compete once the race quickly moves out of the "retail" states of Iowa (which he could win), and New Hampshire (where his cultural conservatism will not fare well, and where he cannot win).

So why is he running?  To have some control over the primary campaign message, and force a debate over "values" issues, particularly and specifically gay marriage.  Huckabee has essentially already said as much, and even pointedly threatened to leave the Republican Party if it wavers on the issue.

Huckabee as a candidate will ensure that same-sex marriage, and the evangelical base's strong opposition to it, get a full airing and recognition in upcoming national primary debates, something JEB! desperately wants to avoid.  His focus on this issue, and JEB!'s likely waffling (by taking the position that each state should decide the issue on its own) will further alienate the evangelical base from the Crown Prince.  Also expect Huckabee to attack JEB!, and the GOP establishment, over crony capitalism.  He can do to JEB! (and for Hilldog) much the same as Newt did to Romney in 2012.

3. In a desperate effort to separate himself from the "legitimate rape" image of the hard right element in the GOP and further appeal to the growing portion of the national electorate that now views strident opposition to gay marriage as reactionary, will JEB! then confront Huckabee in a "Sister Souljah" moment over gay rights? Consider that if JEB! follows such a path, and then picks Portman to be his running mate, an establishment neocon politician (very much loved by the plutocracy) and who now favors gay marriage after learning his son is gay, such an action might provoke Huckabee to take the next logical step. And there is the potential that the US Supreme Court might take up an equal protection case by 2016, and let Republican Anthony Kennedy write a "Loving" decision legalizing gay marriage nationally.

4. Would Huckabee, faced with a GOP that on some level in 2016 embraces the idea of gay marriage as both acceptable and legitimate, then destroy the 30 year old alliance between the Republican Party and evangelical voters and run as the Third Choice appealing to nativists, anti-cronyism, and cultural reaction in order to prove a fatal point to those Republican party elites who have for decades used the "Southern," then more broadly, the "Values" Strategy for their cynical gain?

The prospect is both fascinating, logical, and a karmic delight.

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