JEB! Bush, the "Fresh" Face of 2016

As fresh as a steaming new pile in the pasture can be.

(Bloomberg View) - It's going to take a lot of money to convince Republican voters that they don't know Jeb Bush. The notion that Bush is a tired old warhorse, familiar to all and distasteful to many, is the flip side of his singular political advantage in the Republican field -- the family connections, the vast and hyper-wealthy donor network, the ready access to political and policy expertise. 

In reality, voters can't possibly know that much about Bush. He was a successful -- and conservative -- governor of Florida, but he hasn't been in office since 2007. His (yet to be announced) presidential campaign, along with an outline of his views on immigration and Common Core, have generated news in recent months. But he has never run for president or served in a cabinet. He has never been a national political figure; even during his brother's presidency, he didn't have an especially high profile.

The disastrous effects of that presidency, however, seem to have such resonance that voters intuitively recoil at Jeb's surname. In January, pollster Peter Hart gave a dozen Colorado residents a list of politicians and asked them whom they would least like to have as a next-door neighbor. Among the 12 people -- Democrats, Republicans and independents -- eight named Jeb Bush. Unless random Coloradans spend an inordinate amount a time studying Florida politics, that's a testament to how powerfully "Bush" is overwhelming "Jeb" right now. (For more on Bush's dilemma, see Bloomberg's Michael C. Bender.)

Dynastic drag is prevalent in both political parties. But it afflicts Bush more than Hillary Clinton -- even though it's Clinton, not Bush, who has been a high-profile fixture of national politics for almost a quarter century. Clinton is much more popular with Democrats than Bush is with Republicans, and she consistently leads Bush -- sometimes by double-digits -- in general election match-ups. Read more.