Is JEB! really going to run?

The Crown Prince is, according to the same media sources that once held he was unlikely to run in 2016, now "all but certain" to run.  These pundits base this on JEB!'s heavy fund raising activity, and his recently formed PAC "Right to Rise (aka Rule)."

Certainly the Crown Prince is doing what a likely candidate would do, in both respects.  But you have to wonder what he is really up to.  All polls show two things:  the party polls show he can conceivably buy the GOP nomination.  He is the front runner, albeit a weak one in a crowded field. Fund raising intimidation, and the type of typical Rove-orchestrated character assassination negative attacks against his serious opponents probably would deliver him the nod.  The general election polls, however, universally show the Crown Prince a landslide loser everywhere there is anything in play, in every swing state which would decide the election.  He has among the highest negatives of any candidate, and some polls show up to 50 percent of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances.

So how could he win?  The only strategy for him would be to hope for a close election like those his brother faced in 2000 and 2004, and then win Ohio.  That strategy would likely involve picking someone like Rob Portman (more likely) or John Kasich (less likely) to be his running mate.  JEB! alone is losing Ohio by double digits to Hillary in most polls, and it seems less than likely that Ohioans would vote for him merely for putting Portman on the ticket anymore than Wisconsinites did for Romney when he picked Paul Ryan.

Hoping for as good a showing as W is not likely given JEB!'s weaker position with the party base than W.  Likewise the Clintons will make this election about a return of both Bill and Hillary and referendum on competing legacies, not as some Republicans hope, a strident "identity" campaign about the first woman president.  The "glass ceiling" aspect will be a secondary part of any Hillary run, and her strategy will be to use it carefully to motivate working class white women to a higher than historic turnout (replacing young voters and a higher than average turnout of African-Americans from Obama's coalition).

Trying to win the general election for JEB! will be like trying to draw to an inside straight in poker. The odds are heavily against him, even with his family and money connections.  In terms of money, he will have the diehard support of only a portion of the plutocracy (oil, gas, arms, neocons), while much of the monied establishment will be perfectly amenable to Hillary.

That is the case for JEB! running.  The other case is that JEB! will not, in the end, run, but rather bow out eventually, and turn his PAC funds over to other establishment GOP options with a greater chance of success in November.  Play the role of king maker from a royal family, and party statesman, rather than vainglorious pretender.

Yet JEB! has to know this is his only shot at a Bush Restoration with him playing the role of Bonnie Prince.  After 2016 the family's hope will lie with George P.

Will conceit get the better of JEB!, or will his sense of history and reason prevail?