The latest Washington Post - ABC News poll has Jeb losing in a landslide to Hillary, 53 percent to 41 percent. This is consistent with numbers and spreads in virtually all major polls this year to date. Jeb seems to have a ceiling of support nationally at about 41 to 43 percent. Clinton gets 94 percent of Democrats, a plurality of 47 percent of independents, 59 percent of moderates, even 25 percent of self-described conservatives. Perhaps most important, she gets 59 percent of women, to Bush’s 36 percent.
Very telling for Jeb is his abysmal favorability ratings: he is viewed favorably by only 21 percent, while 32 percent have an unfavorable view of him. And his unfavorable numbers are rising (perhaps as Americans seriously ponder the idea of another Bush presidential run).
One thing no poll has yet attempted to capture (and it would be hard to do so) is:
1. The percentage of the GOP base that would stay home if Jeb is the nominee.
2. How much (if any) will a Hillary candidacy spike the turnout of working class white women (who otherwise would not vote at all) in her favor? Hillary will do better with working class white voters than Obama in Ohio valley states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Bill's home state of Arkansas. Jeb is unlikely to inspire a high turnout of lower class white voters (over religion or any wedge issue) in these states for the GOP, and his "internationalism" will likely turn off the nativists.
There is no doubt Hillary will crush Jeb with single women, and the issue of who will win married women over 40 (who usually vote Republican) is another crucial factor. It is hard to imagine the prospect of another Bush (and another war) exciting any group of women.
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