"Declaration of War" against JEB! 2016 comes today

The Democratic "declaration of war" against the Crown Prince and his '16 "Bonnie Prince Jebbie" Restoration effort begins tonight, then continues tomorrow in the lair of Sheldon Adelson, when Obama travels to Vegas and throws down his Hispanic gauntlet at the feet of the Royal Family and their Party of Bush.  What better place to do it, where lots of "undocumented" workers bus the tables and clean the toilets of the gambling class and neocon plutocrats like Adelson, who will surely be one the principal financial backers of the Crown Prince.

Why me?  Why now?  I need a cigarette...and a drink!

Obama is certainly a master of political theater and gamesmanship, if not exactly governing policy, but the timing of this action is risky. He might be better served to challenge the new Congress to act, give them a few months, and do this next Spring.   The public would likely see that timetable as more reasonable.  The gamble with waiting a bit longer is that Congress might actually pass a comprehensive bill, and deflate the whole political strategy. This seems unlikely for two reasons. The nativist base would insure any bill would have to be passed by violating the "Hastert rule" in the House, and the GOP establishment's strategy on immigration seems to be to hold off (so as not to enrage the nativists) until JEB! can take credit for "solving" the problem with a limited guest worker scheme to benefit business interests in 2017, after the Bushes retake power, and the base no longer matters.

Obama's strategy, whether now or in a few months, is obvious:

Split the Republican Party in half. This will happen regardless of timing.

1. Embolden the nativists to take to "hate radio" and the media, and control the public face of the Republican Party's reaction, including demands for both a government shutdown and impeachment. This will happen regardless of timing, yet doing it now may actually provoke a government shutdown next month.

2. Make it impossible for the Bourbon Toad and the Ohio Bouncer to control their respective caucuses. Debatable.  Mr. Toad is on record stating, categorically, there will be no government shutdown, while the Brown (as in spray tanned) Bouncer has been less categorical in his rhetoric. Even a "partial" shutdown used to mute the worst excesses of the base would likely seriously damage McConnell's credibility.

Shut up, teabagger's, and fall in behind your RINO Prince!

3. Panic the GOP Establishment into doing whatever it takes to force the nomination of JEB! as a counterweight to the nativists, meaning JEB! will have to campaign openly in favor of "open borders" via a "comprehensive" Congressional solution, and against his party's base, in order to mitigate any intergeneration damage with Hispanic voters.  Very likely.

4. Enrage the GOP base into backing a third option when JEB! buys the nomination.  That is the obvious goal of all this gamesmanship, and a slight long shot. Probably the odds of drawing to an inside straight, or inside flush, but better than an inside straight flush.

The real risk for Obama is that the public will view the action as too premature.  Part of the Republican reaction, both establishment and base, will be to try and define Obama as an "imperial" tyrant.  They could have some success with this, at least initially, but probably not enough to prevent most of the negative fallout on the GOP the strategy is designed to provoke during the 2016 campaign.

Obama should wait until Spring.  Congress won't pass anything anyway.  JEB! is definitely going to run, and there is no need to panic the GOP donors into begging him to doing something he and his family are hell bound to do anyway.  Doing it after giving the new Congress a direct challenge to act, and doing so when they fail to act will only drive Hispanic voters further away from the Republican Party.

But Obama's going to drop his Schlieffen Plan now, and start the war.  We should know within a few weeks whether Hillary will spend the next two years getting a makeover in Paris, or stuck in the muddy trenches.

Business Insider: Jeb Bush Is Reportedly Making 'Secret Visits' To Wall Street To Prepare For A 2016 Campaign