Notes From the Center Ring of Cirque du GOP: Will JEB! Walk Across the Tightrope, or Flop onto the Canvas?

The Crown Prince, that "joyful tortoise" of neoconservatism and plutocracy, is now within striking distance of second place in New Hampshire in more than one new poll. Most recently Suffolk.

JEB!'s strategy is to limp into second place in New Hampshire as the "alternative" to Trump, wash out Rubio there (by hoping he places no higher than fourth behind Kasich), and then secure the public endorsements of SC Governor Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (to go along with Missy Graham's endorsement he already has).  Trump knows this, and has been able to secure one endorsement himself, that of the SC Lt. Gov.

JEB! must prevent Rubio from a strong third place finish in Iowa which is why he is trying mightily to destroy him now with his SuperPAC money.

If JEB! gets second in NH, and runs second to Trump or Cruz in SC with the help of the state party leaders, and ahead of either Trump or Cruz, then does second in some of the SEC Super Tuesday primaries, and a close third in a few, Rubio is then gone and JEB! will look to gather the establishment around him and launch an all out campaign of relentless destruction against either the emergent frontrunner Trump or Cruz to knock them off and win Florida with Rubio out of it.

At that point the primary races begin to shift to "closed' primaries where registered independents and Democrats can't participate, and Bush as the emergent Establishment choice will place in the top three consistently, and win outright many of these closed contests.

That's the play.  Pretty much his only play.

And it looks increasing like it will be Trump over Cruz, at least going into New Hampshire. Trump's big gamble with FOX BNN and Ailes looks like it might pay off big for him.  His "fund raising" rally tonight in Iowa at Drake University is sold out according to CNN (which certainly will promote it, and cover it live), and Huckabee and Santorum are going to be there for tacit, if unintentional, support and endorsement of his strategy.

Cruz appeared certain to win evangelical-centered Iowa before this play by Trump, and before Jerry Fawell, Jr.'s endorsement of the thrice married casino mogul Trump, but now it could be a whole new race. It all depends on whether or Donald's "fans" will show up to vote.  But if they show up for rallies, and especially if he has a big crowd tonight, and these are people who paid to be there, then perhaps they will show up to vote.


Right now the likely scenario (assuming both Trump and Cruz remain viable) is indeed a Trump, Cruz, Bush primary season stalemate and a brokered "big tent" convention where Cruz plays king clown maker between Trump and Bush, or Romney is drafted.