Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Jeb Bush’s poll numbers are terrible. So why aren’t we talking about them? (He plans to buy better ones perhaps, if the money holds out)

(Washington Post) - In April, one in every four likely Republican primary voters nationally said they would support Jeb Bush for president, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Today, just 7 percent say the same. 


That's a remarkable — and remarkably steady — erosion of support unmatched by anyone still running for the Republican nomination. The only person to experience anything close to that sort of drastic drop-off was Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his candidacy last week.
So, why is no one talking about Bush's struggles — particularly given that he is the best-known candidate in the field and was widely regarded as the front-runner when he entered the race in June? I put that exact question to some of the smartest minds in the Republican Party who aren't currently working for Bush or any of the other 14 announced candidates.
"Jeb’s strategy is predicated on his remaining the front-runner in the 'political insider' lane," said one longtime GOP operative who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly. "That is, when the field narrows and establishment Republicans look for an alternative to Donald Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina, Jeb is counting on being the most popular remaining item on the menu. But that assumption is not something the Bush campaign can count on. [Sen. Marco] Rubio has now eclipsed Jeb as the most popular remaining item on the menu."

Whether or not you agree with that analysis of Bush's prospects, the strategists I talked to were unanimous about one thing: The former Florida governor has avoided full-scale panic over his poll numbers by lapping the other candidates in fundraising — and the campaign organizations that this money can buy. Bush raised $114 million — $103 million of which was for his Right to Rise super PAC — in the first six months of the year, a total that put him head and shoulders above everyone else in the field....
Bush's ability to sustain his candidacy through not just [the] early-voting states but through a process that could be drawn out because of the sheer number of candidates in the race is the thing that keeps the wolves from the door at the moment, said one senior GOP strategist not affiliated with any of the candidates.
"Carson, Fiorina and Trump are not going to be our nominee," the strategist said. "It is a two-man race, Jeb versus Marco. And while I think Marco has a real shot , the idea that they are equal is also ridiculous. Jeb is built for the long haul, which gives him a leg up." Read more.

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