It is obvious that Trump gives no serious consideration to any pledge not to run as an independent he made to a political party that nakedly extorted it out of him. But Trump is all about leveraging his brand advantage, and making a business play out of this fake presidential run that enhances it, so how would imitating Perot next year fit into that mindset?
Trump has been running casually as a "Republican" so far in order to take out JEB! Bush. He appears to have succeeded in that, as Bush's negatives are way up, his poll number are in the toilet, and his plutocrat string pullers and money men are telling him to shape up and start getting really nasty (like his father and brother), or the money will dry up.
Trump may soon drop out and hope JEB! stays taken out, and if JEB! manages to come back and buy the Republican nomination, Trump may jump back in next year as an independent. That would seem the logical choice for him, and his brand.
Trump cannot win the GOP nomination, and dropping out while he still leads in polls using some phony excuse (business emergencies, etc.) prevents him from being embarrassed by not winning any (or many) primaries or caucuses. No brand damage. Then if the general election winds up being Bush and Clinton, he can get back in, buy ballot access with his money, and get probably at least 20-25 percent of the vote in a low interest dynastic contest. Then he can claim he is a "winner" by pointing out he did better than Perot, better in fact than any independent since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, and he might be able to make JEB! Bush the worst performing Republican nominee (by popular vote) since Taft in 1912: worse than Hoover in 1932 and worse than Goldwater in 1964. By Trump brand standards, he would be a big "winner."
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