JEB! 2016 has to destroy only one more candidate in order to buy the nomination, and it is not Trump.

(Slate) - If Jeb Bush were Jeb Jones or Jeb Johnson, he might be a George Pataki or Jim Gilmore—an insignificant, if not irrelevant, former governor seeking the Republican nomination. But he’s a Bush—the third to run for president—and that comes with “free stuff”—the unearned advantage of dynastic ties that will always keep you from becoming Jeb Nobody. And he’s had that leg up since well before he made his presidential run official. Jeb entered the race with checks from Bush family donors and help from Bush family advisers. Indeed, his super PAC raised massive sums in the first few months of the year, almost all on the strength and reliability of his name. 

But Jeb is yet to prove that strength or reliability. Whether it’s his rhetoric on immigration (“Frankly [‘anchor babies’] is more related to Asians”) or black Americans (“Our message is one of hope and aspiration. It isn’t one of division and ‘Get in line and we’ll take care of you with free stuff,’ ”), Bush has shown a tin ear. He’s demonstrated an even worse instinct for political conflict, withering against Donald Trump and other outsider candidates. He’s at 8.7 percent in national polling averages and holds high unfavorables with voters overall.

As such, reports the Washington Post, those early donors are beginning to waver, unsure if they should stick with Bush for the duration. “Jeb Bush is entering a critical phase of his Republican presidential campaign, with top donors warning that the former Florida governor needs to demonstrate growth in the polls over the next month or face serious defections among supporters,” notes the Post.

If Bush were one-of-a-kind—the only “establishment” candidate in the race—this wouldn’t be a huge problem. But he has a strong—arguably gifted—opponent in hisformer protégé, Marco Rubio.

His hyped announcement aside, the Florida senator has taken an understated approach to his campaign. He has been doing small events in the crucial primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire as well as his home state of Florida. His focus has been policy: He has released a tax plan, outlined a foreign policy vision, and issued a plan for paid family leave. Other than minor spats with Donald Trump, he avoids conflict with other candidates. And in his fight with Trump, he’s landed a real blow. “He had a really bad debate performance last week,” said Rubio of the real estate mogul during a recent radio interview. “He’s not well-informed on the issues. He really never talks about issues and can’t have more than a 10-second soundbite on any key issue. … I think he’s kind of been exposed a little bit over the last seven days, and he’s a touchy and insecure guy. So that’s how he reacts, and people can see through it.”

More importantly, he is broadening his coalition in the party.  Read more.