The Supreme Court just killed JEB! 2016

In a huge historical irony, the US Supreme Court, which elected George W. Bush president in 2000 with its jurisprudentially contortious  Bush v. Gore decision, has announced today a decision that will destroy brother JEB!'s 2016 presidential ambitions.  Compounding this irony is that George W. Bush's 2004 reelection was determined by the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage (the first in the nation at the time) which gave W. the demagogic issue he needed to spike "values voters" by opportunistically running against gay marriage, and thus save his presidency from being a one term failure like his father. Instead he turned out to be a monumental two term failed president.

The US Supreme Court has agreed, today, to decide, on certiorari, the issue of whether to legalize gay marriage nationwide via a Loving equal protection standard.  The likely author of the looming opinion, coming almost certainly before the 2016 election and most likely later this year, would be Reagan appointee Anthony Kennedy, a past stalwart support of gay rights.

If Kennedy's imprint is on a Supreme Court decision legalizing gay marriage nationwide, probably by a 6-3 margin with George W. Bush corporatist appointee John Roberts joining the majority, such an action could fracture, perhaps permanently, the coalition between the Republican establishment and evangelical voters that Lee Atwater and Karl Rove carefully crafted over a 40 year period.  This is made more likely given that the Crown Prince is desperately running from the issue, and would be put in the extremely awkward position of having to weigh in on the Court's ruling during the presidential campaign.  He likely will support the ruling in his efforts to appear "moderate" and appeal outside the reactionary base of the GOP, yet doing so could, and likely would, prove fatal to his presidential ambitions.

Compound that with likely GOP candidate William Jennings Huckabee who will run strong on an anti-gay marriage position, force JEB! to take a position in primary debates, and who has threatened to leave the Republican Party if it embraces gay marriage.  What would Huckabee do if JEB! endorsed a GOP authored Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage nationwide, and JEB! then picks Rob Portman as his running mate, something not unlikely?  Would Huck run rogue?

For anyone dreading even the idea of a third Bush presidency, this is great news.

Uh, I believe firmly...
in a state's right to choose!

Biloxi-Gulfport Sun-Herald: Jeb Bush choose expedience when it comes to gay marriage

Bradenton Herald: Gov. Jeb Bush's stance on marriage equality examined

Detroit Free Press: Jeb Bush's grudging OK on gay marriage

seattlepi.com: Same-sex marriages begin in Florida, Jeb Bush straddles the issue

Daily Beast: Jeb Bush’s Unseen Anti-Gay Marriage Emails