What Mississippi probably means for 2016

The tea party will never take over the Republican Party.  Objectively, its high water mark as an inside force for the Republican Party's political fortunes has been reached and passed.  This is so because those funding it, and tolerating it for their benefit have now decided it no longer benefits them, and are openly hostile to it, and trying to destroy it as an organized force from within the party.

That does not mean the tea party as an oppositional force to the GOP establishment need be finished, necessarily, or that it will not have an impact in 2016.  It just won't have any impact from a party leadership level.  Ever.

The 2016 Republican nominee will be someone that Karl Rove supports.  There is a 100 percent certainty of that. It probably (but not certainly) will be Jeb Bush.  This is likely for a number of reasons. Jeb wants it. He, of course, does not want to dirty his own hands to get it, but he wants it, and if others can deliver it to him with a minimum of effort by him, he will go for it.

Also, his other likely adversaries, such as Chris Christie and Scott Walker, are self-destructing in scandal (well with perhaps a little help from others).  Paul Ryan is old, unelectable news (almost as old and unelectable news as JEB!).  That leaves John Kaisch as the only real credible establishment alternative to JEB!  Kaisch could be the nominee if enough of the monied elites in the party back him, and if JEB! bows out and leaves the field open for him. And Kaisch would not lose as badly to Hillary as JEB! would.  He might even be competitive.

JEB! will have "grassroots" opposition in the primaries.  No matter how much money Rove raises to buy him the nomination, and no matter how many dirty tricks Rove plays on his opponents, JEB! will still have to sully himself in a handful of unseemly debates with his inferiors. He will have to tolerate boos from the crowd when he advocates for guest workers and open borders, and Common Core, claiming all of it is truly conservative and loving and compassionate, and none of it has anything to do with depressing wages or workers' rights, or windfall and government subsidized profiteering for his brother's (and other donors and cronies') testing and Common Core-compliant school curriculum companies.

Buying the nomination for JEB! will be tricky and nasty.

It will further alienate a majority of the base. Which leads to the way the tea party can determine the election, or at least the margin of it.  They can stay home, or just enough of them can.  And probably enough of them will.

Sure 80-90 percent of the base will show up, as always. They will buy the about-face rhetoric from Levin, Rush, and other about how they must now support JEB! to avoid Hillary.  They will grudgingly accept JEB!'s assurances that he loves Jesus, and believes in "conservative" values.  But 10-20 percent will be fed up enough, and not drink the cool-aid anymore. That will be enough to mean the difference between JEB! losing to Hillary, and JEB! being humiliated by Hillary.  And there are plenty of those fed up, and cool-aid free, base voters who would not mind seeing him humiliated.

Weekly Standard:The Real Lesson from Mississippi