Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Why Jeb Bush Will Win the 2016 GOP Nomination

That's the title of a recent blog post on the Huffington Post.  The "why" is explained this way:

"He's got class, pedigree, political juice and a Mexican-born wife...assets the Republican Party desperately needs. He's an oasis of respectability and sanity in a sea of fringe madness. He's appealingly establishment and old-school against a backdrop of Tea Party Turks run amok. He's Steady-Eddie. Conservative enough to appeal to the masses, but not too conservative to attract independents."

Words like these beg a multitude of reactions.  No doubt Jeb Bush can be the Republican nominee if he wants to be.  The party leadership and the donor base will deliver the nomination to him, over any objections primary voters might have.  Yet when reading this rationale for his candidacy, one has to wonder if the right wing (neoconservative) Establishment in this country has become as detached from reality as the perfumed Versailles aristocracy of the French ancien regime circa 1788.

Quite frankly Jeb would be destroyed in a general election, certainly by Bill and Hillary Clinton, but most likely by any Democrat who manages to get that party's nomination.  At least ten percent of the hard right base would stay home, just as they did for Mitt Romney.  Independents, who have no ideological view of reality that can be manipulated by neocon wedge baiters using tired, outdated strategies and tactics will simply not accept a third Bush president within a mere quarter century (coming after what the first two offered the country).  In fact, they will consider the very idea laughable. Jeb can "win" the 2016 GOP nomination, but nothing else.

Neocons may get a European war

According to Reuters, Russia has mobilized a large enough force along Ukraine's borders for an invasion of the country "within 3-5 days."  If Putin wants to invade, now would be the time to do it before the rump nationalist government in Kiev has a further chance to develop a national guard and deploy it to the eastern areas.   If the tanks roll, the question is where do they stop? Somewhere in eastern Ukraine, or do they roll onward towards the Polish border, and force a general war of conquest and partisan resistance with all of Ukraine?  If Putin wants it all, now is the time to try for it, and humiliate "Lurch" and Obama.     Stay tuned to John Batchelor for melodrama and analysis in the coming days.

Plutocracy Unbound!

Who better than the Wall Street Journal for details about today's Supreme Court decision enhancing its line of "government for sale" cases, beginning with Buckley v. Valeo, continuing through Citizen's United and now "McCutcheon," which invalidates aggregate campaign contribution limits. The days of Bebe Rebozo, and transparent bagmen, are not far away from our future, as the Sheldon Adelsons, Kochs, and Soroses are undoubtedly celebrating this victory (along with their patrician stooges like Jeb).

The Roman Pretorian Guard formally auctioned the Principate to the highest bidder after assassinating Commodus, and his short lived successor Pertinax in AD 193.  America is arriving at its own logical imperial destiny, thanks to corrupted legal systems and courts.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Would Jeb nomination be "suicidal" for the GOP?

While the Republican Party stands to make gains, perhaps even seemingly major ones, in the upcoming midterm elections, the short term bump they receive because of Obamacare may only temporarily paper over the long terms problems facing the party.

A recent article in Slate posits that a Jeb Bush presidential run in 2016 would be "hard" for the Republican Party, exposing in the worst way, its existing fault lines and interest group contradictions. Saying it would be "hard" might be an understatement in hindsight.  Bush's family heritage, coming off of two recent arguably failed Bush presidents (at least with the second) obviously would be a problem, according to the article, but the second reason is the kicker:

"The second problem for Bush is the people backing the draft movement. He isn’t being called from the counter in coffee shops or Tuesday Tips club meetings. The support is coming from what one GOP veteran referred to as “the donor class.”  This group is also variously referred to as the establishment, Country Club Republicans, and the moderate wing of the party. These Republicans are tired of being defined by the ... Tea Party wing of the party. Meanwhile, movement conservatives are sick of elites using their money to arrange things without the interference of pesky voters."

The real problem the plutocrat donor base faces if it forces Jeb upon the party's voting base in 2016 is a potential irreversible destruction of the wedge issue electoral coalition of disparate reactionary and libertarian interest groups that has served the donor class very well over the last thirty plus years.  Jeb will not run as a phony cultural reactionary like his older brother did, and his calculated appeal to "moderates, modernists, and Hispanics" will enrage the white nativist base of the GOP, and also his neoconservative support, and crony capitalist baggage will alienate the libertarians.  Would it be a perfect storm for the Republican Party, given Jeb's likely weak appeal to independents in a general election hostile to a third Bush "entitlement" presidency within the last quarter century?   The Clintons' campaign slogan may need be only:  "A Clinton Second Act, or a Third Bush Try?  You Choose."

Fox: Bush royalists "keeping powder dry"

According the GOP party PR media outlet FoxNews, Bush political loyalists, including a network of high ranking staffers from previous Bush campaigns and major money bags donors, are holding steady and coalescing around the prospect of a Jeb! 2016 run for the purple.

Jeb himself, coming off his recent private summit with potential benefactor Sheldon Adelson, has avoided the fray with a certain amount of royal detachment, which he and his family probably view as the proper level of tactful patrician reserve, saying only he will make a decision later this year (presumably after the midterms, and the all but certain selection of son George P. as Texas Land Commissioner). Meanwhile, according to Justin Sayfie, Jeb Bush's former communications director and speech writer, the shadow campaign organization, and its personnel are "keeping our powder dry."